Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest has become a 4th of July institution, celebrating the humble frank and bun combo. For years, Joey Chestnut has dominated the contest held at Coney Island in New York with 16 wins; in 2023, Chestnut ate his way to victory with 62 hot dogs.

However, this year there will be a new Mustard Belt winner since Chestnut is banned from competeting in the event. Still, there are plenty of interesting candidates to win who have been eating in Chestnut’s shadow – until now.

Why is Joey Chestnut Banned from Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest?

Joey Chestnut is probably the most famous professional eater in the U.S. and much of his fame comes from winning the annual hot dog eating contest. He holds the record number of wins as well as the record number of hot dogs eaten in 10 minutes: 76.

The reason why Chestnut is banned from the 2024 event is his recent partnership with Impossible Foods, which offers vegan food and most recently, vegan hot dogs.

Naturally, the management of Nathan’s and Major League Eating were unhappy and chose to disqualify the champion, who is welcome to join the event next year (presumably if he drops the Impossible Foods partnership).

Who Are the Contestants and How Have They Performed in the Past?

With the runaway favorite not participating, Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest will have a new champion for the first time in years. Many of the gents looking for their first win have participated in the contest before; below we detail the new frontrunners and their track record from previous competitions to give our predictions on who will take home the Mustard Belt in 2024.

• Geoffrey Esper is the frontrunner to win this year’s contest, having finished second in the past two competitions. Ranked #2 in Major League Eating behind Chestnut, could he finally nab that belt?
• Nick Wehry, bodybuilder and husband to ladies’ 2022 & 2023 champ Miki Sudo, placed fourth in last year’s contest. Wehry has been on an upward trajectory: he ate 40.5 in 2022 and 45 dogs in 2023.
• James Webb placed third in 2023 behind Chestnut and Esper. The Aussie eater is ranked high to win this year but appearances in just two Contests prior to 2024 is a concern.
• Patrick Bertoletti finished the Cleveland qualifier with 48.25 dogs and instantly became someone to watch out for. Bertoletti is ranked just 9th in Major League Eating but a good performance in the Hot Dog Contest could bump him up in rankings.
• The former college basketball player Gideon Oji has also appeared in several Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating contests and is a dark horse this year. His towering frame is an asset in competitive eating.
• Bartley Weaver IV has already demolished 40 hot dogs in 10 minutes in his competitive eating career. Can he take the next step and challenge the favorites for the win?

BonusFinder Predictions for the 2024 Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest

After examining the results over the past five contests and the qualifying rounds of 2024 and 2023, our experts’ predictions are the following:

• Experts at BonusFinder US are predicting Geoffrey Esper will win Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating contest by finishing 51 or more hot dogs and buns. Esper has racked up an average of 48.8 hot dogs eaten over the past five years of competing, finishing 49.5 HDB’s in this year’s qualifiers. With Chestnut finally out of his way, we’re predicting that Esper will win and possibly break his record of 51 hot dogs and buns.
• For second place, we’re rooting for the Major League Eating veteran, Nick Wehry. Despite his average being lower than James Webb’s, the Floridian has consistently upped his game over the years, finishing 48 HDB’s in this year’s qualifiers – a massive jump from the 36 hot dogs and buns that he finished in the 2019 contest.
• James Webb is the bookies’ second favorite to win this 4th of July, finishing in third place in the past two contests. While he has an average of 44 hot dogs and buns finished in 2023 and 2022, he has only taken part in the competition twice, making him somewhat of a wild card.
• Thanks to his amazing performance in this years’ qualifiers (48.25 HDB), BonusFinder predicts Patrick Bertoletti to finish fourth. Bertoletti has improved his results significantly since the 2022 contest when he only finished 33.5 HDB’s.
• While Gideon Oji hasn’t missed a contest since 2019, his performance has stayed consistent over the years. BonusFinder is predicting the former college athlete to finish in fifth place with 35.5 HDB’s.

What About the Women?

Miki Sudo is the runaway favorite in the women’s contest; she’s eaten the most hot dogs in nine out of ten last contests (she didn’t participate in 2021). Other contestants in the women’s division will be last year’s runner up Mayoi Ebihara, Laurel Marie Mele, Michelle Lesco, and Katie Prettyman, among others.

• With an average of 39.8 hot dogs and buns, the reigning champion Miki Sudo is likely to add a tenth title to her winning streak. BonusFinder is predicting her to finish 44.25 hot dogs and buns in this year’s contest.
• We’re predicting Mayoi Ebihara to take second place again, improving her result from 33.5 to 36 hot dogs and buns. Ebihara jumped right in in last year’s competition and finished second, beating the world’s no. 10, Michelle Lesco, by nearly 10 hot dogs.
• Michelle Lesco’s current average stands at 26.9 but her performance has been going downhill over the years. The Arizonian finished 30.75 HDB’s in 2021 but her results dropped to 24.25 HDB’s in last year’s contest.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Odds

You can bet on Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest on certain online sportsbooks; on sportsbooks like DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook, the odds have been laid out well in advance.

On the men’s side, Geoffrey Esper is the favorite, followed by James Webb. Nick Wehry and Patrick Bertoletti are not very close behind in odds but don’t count them out of the running as their qualifier performances were stellar.

Miki Sudo’s odds to win are excellent with Mayoi Ebihara far behind. Michelle Lesco, Larell Marie Mele, and Katie Prettyman can only win if neither of the top two ladies can compete.

Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest Details

The contest takes place on the 4th of July from 11am to 1pm at Nathan’s flagship restaurant at 1310 Surf Avenue, Coney Island, NY. Each contestant has 10 minutes to eat as many hot dogs as they can and the winner is the person who eats the most. Major League Eating judges monitor the event to ensure professional standards are followed and the event remains safe for all participants.